We have had no shortage of drama and controversy in our United States election cycles, and the 2024 election will not disappoint!

How does a presidential election impact the housing market?

The decision to buy or sell your home is monumental, and if you’re like many people, you worry about the best timing for your homeownership investment. After rising prices and interest rates, you may feel particularly hesitant to make a decision to move during an election year due to uncertainty of what the future holds.

To help you make informed decisions, I will share historic national housing market trends during election years.

Do home sales go up or down?

Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda said that sales volume typically dips during the month of November in election years according to Keeping Current Matters. Despite this minor change, the broader trend is different. The chart below by KCM, shows election years in blue. In eight of the eleven election years, sales increased compared to the preceding year. Additionally, in nine out of eleven years since 1978, home sales rose after an election year.

Do prices go up or down?

After seven of the last eight presidential elections, home sales went up. The only exception was after the Great Recession in 2008 in when conditions were vastly different due to high inventory and lax lending regulations.

What about mortgage rates?

Bottom Line:

If history repeats itself, you can expect to see rates come down ahead of the November election and increased home sales and continued price appreciation following the election. Lower rates can make purchasing a home more affordable and selling more lucrative. More sellers entering the market will provide greater choice for buyers, and continued appreciation maximizes your return on sale.

Contact your agent today to discuss the timing, options, and strategy for your move.